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The plots show
the latest predicted planetary geomagnetic activity index (Kp)
from the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency Wing Kp model. The plots
include the current 1-hour and 4-hour Kp predictions, plus recent
predictions with the observed Estimated Kp
The top panel
plot shows the two 1-hour and 4-hour Kp index model predictions
and the corresponding confidence level. The solid horizontal
green bar shows the 3-hour interval over which the latest
predictions are valid. Error bars are plotted to show the 50%
confidence interval.
1-hour prediction, plotted with
filled-in circles
4-hour prediction, plotted in plus (+)
symbols.
Prediction points in the top panel are plotted at
the model valid time (run time + Propagation time), which is
usually 30-90 minutes into the future for the 1-hour prediction
and 210-270 minutes into the future for the 4-hour
prediction.
The solid blue line is the Estimated Kp index.
The
dashed red line indicates the lowest alert level, G1 (minor), on
the NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms.
The
predictions are color coded according to the amount of solar wind
data that was available for each model run; green (most data) and
yellow (little data).
The bottom Lead Time panel shows an
estimate of the actual lead time for the 1-hour and 4-hour
predictions. The left plot legend shows the 1-hour lead time and
the 4-hour lead time is shown on the right. The actual lead time
depends on solar wind speed and can be greater than or less than
one hour depending on the solar wind speed. The predictions are
calculated using the ACE Real-Time solar wind speed data. The
lead time is the time for the solar wind to propagate from the
ACE satellite, at L1, to the Earth.
Missing Kp values, Lead
Time values, or model output indicates the data is not available.
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These
images are whole-Sun maps of magnetic activity. They show 360
degrees of longitude in the Carrington coordinate system normally
used for solar observations. The map extent is from south pole to
north pole in an equal area projection. The solar equator and
each 60 degrees of longitude are marked.
